A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
